NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND ERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI...AND EXTREME NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO PART OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO PART OF NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT BY LATE EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS IOWA INTO PART OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WRN U.S. WILL BE MAINTAINED AS CLOSED LOW WITHIN THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS SSE TOWARD THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NWWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN SERN SD THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NRN OH WNWWD THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER TO IN VICINITY OF NRN IA AND THE MN BORDER WHERE IT IS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BY ONGOING STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY THEN CONTINUED TO EXTEND WNWWD THROUGH FAR SERN TO SWRN SD...NRN WY TO WRN MT. A HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS EXTENDED FROM SD...NRN AND ERN NEB THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. ...PART OF MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES... FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO IA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA TO NRN IL WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING FROM NERN NEB THROUGH FAR SERN SD...AND INTO NWRN-NRN IA. MEANWHILE...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE CURRENT BOW ECHO TRACKING EWD THROUGH SERN MN AND NERN IA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO IA AND ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL BOW WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH A POTENTIAL ESEWD TURN ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS EVENING THROUGH SRN WI AND INTO NRN IL. THESE SAME FACTORS /DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA/ WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DAMAGING BOW DEVELOPMENT YET THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS IA. ...WRN AND NRN SD/NERN WY/ERN MT/WRN AND CENTRAL ND... THE RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 35-40 KT SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1027.
lundi 16 juin 2014
Jun 17, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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