Jun 22, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM
   CENTRAL/SRN IA TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PARTS OF
   IOWA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREATS
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ...PLAINS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW MN TO NE CO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
   SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED
   MAXIMA PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  IN THE WAKE OF
   THE MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY
   WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD ACROSS KS TO THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   30-35 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
   7-8 C/KM WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ANY
   SUPERCELLS...WHILE CELL MERGERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING.  THE MOST CONCENTRATED RISK
   AREA FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS...WHILE
   SOME RISK WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NW OK.

   ...SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON...
   REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
   EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MCV FROM ERN NEB...COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN IA. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND SURFACE HEATING S OF THE
   CLOUD DEBRIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  OTHER THAN SOME MODEST L0W-MIDLEVEL
   ENHANCEMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY S/SE OF THE
   MCV...BACKGROUND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. 
   STILL...THE STRONG BUOYANCY WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO S GA/N FL THIS AFTERNOON...
   A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK CAP...ALONG WITH A DIFFUSE NW-SE
   ORIENTED BOUNDARY...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  THOUGH FLOW WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.