NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SRN IA TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PARTS OF IOWA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...PLAINS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW MN TO NE CO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD ACROSS KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS...WHILE CELL MERGERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED RISK AREA FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS...WHILE SOME RISK WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NW OK. ...SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON... REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MCV FROM ERN NEB...COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN IA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND SURFACE HEATING S OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. OTHER THAN SOME MODEST L0W-MIDLEVEL ENHANCEMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY S/SE OF THE MCV...BACKGROUND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...THE STRONG BUOYANCY WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON. ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO S GA/N FL THIS AFTERNOON... A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK CAP...ALONG WITH A DIFFUSE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH FLOW WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.
dimanche 22 juin 2014
Jun 22, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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