Jun 24, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  ISOLATED STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
   UPSTATE NEW YORK.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND FOUR
   CORNERS REGION TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO
   INTENSIFYING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN AND NRN CO DURING THE DAY.
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ON
   THE CHEYENNE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SERN CO AND IN NERN NM. THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR AKRON CO AND LAMAR CO AT 00Z/WED SHOW
   MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45
   KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM
   SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL SHOULD EXIST EARLY IN THE EVENT WHEN
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. AS CELL COVERAGE
   INCREASES...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INCREASING
   THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE OK AND WRN TX PANHANDLES COULD
   POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED BY THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.


   ...SRN MT/WY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. AT
   THE SFC...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
   HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   SRN MT AND WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADING
   EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LANDER WY AND
   BOZEMAN MT AT 00Z/WED SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
   A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...OH VALLEY/UPSTATE NY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY.
   AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN IND
   AND SRN IL TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM INDIANAPOLIS
   INDIANA NEWD TO AKRON OH AND SYRACUSE NY AT 21Z SHOW SBCAPE IN THE
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
   F. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 30 KT OF
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
   BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.