Jun 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND INTO
   SOUTHERN IOWA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY TO THE MID
   MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS REGION EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHERN
   KANSAS...IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS.  LARGE HAIL AND
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION -- TORNADOES...A
   FEW STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CREST THE S CENTRAL U.S.
   RIDGE AND SHIFT INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE
   THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT WITH RESPECT THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
   THIS PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW THEN SHIFTING EWD
   TO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS...
   A SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESRPEAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...WITH INITIAL STORMS EXPECTED EARLY ACROSS THE SWRN SD
   VICINITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   UPPER SYSTEM.  HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG GUST OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THE SURFACE
   WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. 
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
   -- INCLUDING MORE ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   FROM ERN MT TO WRN KS...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD STORMS
   ACROSS SRN SD AND NEB INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.  IN ADDITION TO
   THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS ZONE -- WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SLY/SELY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT AND VEER
   TO WLY THROUGH MID LEVELS WHERE 50-60 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED.  

   WHILE THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   ROTATING STORMS -- AND THUS INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEB
   VICINITY IS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...A WIDE ARRAY OF
   MODEL DATA FROM VARIOUS RUNS REMAINS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF RAPID
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING/BOWING-TYPE MCS/S. 
   THUS...WHILE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST -- INCLUDING A FEW
   STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
   STORMS CROSS NEB AND SHIFT INTO IA/NRN MO.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. 
   OVERNIGHT...DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY
   EWD...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL IL
   OVERNIGHT.