Jun 7, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE MID MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
   LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
   FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. AN ENHANCED RISK OF THESE HAZARDS IS
   FORECAST FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
   SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY. 
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
   ACROSS THE NATION.  TWO SYSTEMS IN PARTICULAR WILL HELP FOCUS THE
   RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.

   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. 
   THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KS.  DUE
   TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE STORMS/CLOUDS THIS
   MORNING...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER
   PARTS OF EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL. NEVERTHELESS...BACKED LOW LEVEL
   WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
   MAIN RISKS...HOWEVER SOME THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
   EXIST.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND EASTERN NM.  A WEAK
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST CO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND HELP TO
   INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.  40+ KNOT
   WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. 
   THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD
   DURING THE EVENING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY OK...WHERE
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.