dimanche 6 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 06 Jul 2014 06:00 to Mon 07 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Jul 2014 07:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for northern Spain and southern France mainly for large hail.
A level 2 was issued for northeastern France to western Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, a chance of an isolated tornadoes and large hail.
A level 1 was issued for northern Italy and SW Germany mainly for large hail.


A cold front belonging to a low pressure system over the British Isles and a large amplitude Atlantic mid level trough move into western Europe. Before the front the low-level flow has a strong southerly component advecting warm air which is also rather saturated with mixing ratios of 12 g/kg at 05Z at the surface across parts of France and Benelux countries. In southern France the values even range into 14 g/kg. Resulting MLCAPE values (after mixing the boundary layer) will vary between only 300 J/kg in the north and over 1000 J/kg in the south, respectively, at 12Z. The UK and Ireland will be in the cool airmass with also sufficiently cold ELs to allow thunder, mainly over the UK which lies at the advancing edge of the PV intrusion.

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