vendredi 11 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 11 Jul 2014 06:00 to Sat 12 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 11 Jul 2014 09:28
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 and level 2 were issued for Bulgaria, E Romania and Moldova for large hail, severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Ukraine and Belarus mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for North-Central Europe mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy for large hail, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for a small area in N Sweden and N Finland for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A complex upper-level low still governs the weather over much of Europe. Its individual centers move from the Channel into Southern France, from Bosnia into Western Romania and from Lithuania into Northern Poland, respectively. The former two also induce weak surface cyclogeneses ahead of their paths in response to travelling vorticity maxima aloft.
While cool air is present in the range of these upper-level low centers, very warm air from Turkey spreads over the Black Sea, the Ukraine and Belarus. A moderate mid-level jet surrounds the upper-level low to the South and stretches from Southern Itay across the Eastern Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
Anticyclonic influence dominates from Iberia across the British Isles into Scandinavia.

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