samedi 19 juillet 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 19 Jul 2014 06:00 to Sun 20 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Jul 2014 19:35
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 and level 2 were issued for England, France and BeNeLux for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for E Spain for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Switzerland mainly for large hail.


Main feature is an Atlantic trough which slowly proceeds eastward over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay. A mid-level jet streak rounds the tip of the trough over Spain and circles northward over France into England. In these regions, a 500 hPa flow between 20 and 30 m/s and travelling vorticity maxima set the stage for another day of organized convection. The main focus for convective initiation is provided by a wavy frontal zone, which separates a tongue of very hot air of African origin to the East from cool maritime air to the West.
In the rest of Europe, warm and partly moist air is present under weak geopotential gradients. A diffuse, V-shaped upper-level low stretches from Southern Sweden via Western Russia into Turkey, while a highly amplified ridge extends from the Central Mediterranean across Central Europe and the North Sea to Northern Scandinavia.

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