Jul 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/OH VALLEY AND
   NORTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO
   VALLEY...AND THE OZARKS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION DURING
   THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
   PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TO
   OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BASE OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE SEMI-FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF A
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/OH
   VALLEY/OZARKS...TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NM. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
   ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL ON THE PERIPHERY OF
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE /REFERENCE NHC FOR DETAILS/.

   ...OZARKS/OH VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES...
   CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW/CLOUD DEBRIS VIA AN OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   MIDDLE/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS UNCERTAIN
   RAMIFICATIONS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP/REINVIGORATE ALONG RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW/CORRIDORS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...AND/OR NEAR THE SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SYNOPTIC COLD
   FRONT.

   STRONGER CYCLONIC MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL TEND TO THE LAG THE
   COLD FRONT /TO THE WEST/...BUT AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS FROM THE OZARKS TO
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF PA/NY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS INTO THIS EVENING. 

   ...OK/NM/SOUTHERN CO AND WEST/NORTH TX...
   A COLD FRONT...EFFECTIVELY MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN SOME
   AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO SAG GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK/NEBULOUS...BUT
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...AND IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A WESTWARD-MOISTURE SURGE/LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS
   INTERIOR NM/SOUTHERN CO. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN MOST AREAS NEAR THE
   FRONT WILL BE 30 KT OR LESS...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
   INTENSITY/LONGEVITY. EVEN SO...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
   FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL OR
   TWO WITH ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING.