Jul 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
   MID-MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL PREVAIL
   OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED
   ACROSS NRN MANITOBA. TRAILING PORTION OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NRN
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER S...A LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
   OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING
   ACROSS S NEB AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING S THROUGH CNTRL KS. A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OFF THE NRN CA/ORE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY...
   RESERVOIR OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY 60S SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS/ WILL EXIST BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES N OF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. ROBUST DIABATIC WARMING S OF THE FRONT
   /SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEG F/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS...BUT WITH AN ELY COMPONENT TO
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REACH 25-35 KT. AFTERNOON
   STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOP EWD
   IN THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE WITH SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN FRI
   NIGHT RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ERN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK
   TOWARDS IA.

   ...N MN...
   MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIE AHEAD OF THE
   IMPINGING COLD FRONT...WHERE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED
   IN THE WAKE OF SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION. MLCAPE SHOULD REACH
   1500-2500 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD
   BE STRONG BETWEEN 700-250 MB...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE GIVEN
   LITTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE AND GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AMIDST MINIMAL MLCIN...SUFFICIENT SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY PRODUCING SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND.

   ...SW ORE/NE CA...
   GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   SLYS ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA NV TO SRN CASCADE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 25-30 KT ALONG WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
   A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.