Jul 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
   LIKELY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND
   APPALACHIANS VICINITY. A MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
   MAY ALSO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION/MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION...WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   THE APPALACHIANS/GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH
   WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
   FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
   OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR /REFERENCE NHC FOR THE LATEST
   DETAILS/ WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE THREAT IN TERMS OF SEVERE
   WIND/TORNADO RISK FOR THE MAINLAND.

   ...NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   WHILE CYCLONICALLY EMBEDDED IMPULSES MAY NOT BE OPTIMALLY TIMED AND
   HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WEAK...INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
   REGION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO AN INCREASE IN STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
   MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS ANTICIPATED NEAR/AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS VIA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A
   FACTOR FOR FOCUSING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE GREATEST
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /2000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS ANTICIPATED
   IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD/DE INTO
   PA/NJ. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL LAG THE
   EFFECTIVE FRONT TO THE WEST...30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND A MORE PREVALENT
   MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH ASSOCIATED LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS.
   DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ESPECIALLY BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...ARKLATEX/SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
   UPPER-LEVEL INFLUENCES WILL REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST...BUT RESIDUAL
   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND/OR OUTFLOW MAY INFLUENCE A
   REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL
   THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   FARTHER WEST...OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NM AND THE AZ MOUNTAINS...WITH A STORM OR
   TWO CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.