lundi 28 juillet 2014

Jul 28, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY
   OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
   STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
   GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
   YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
   GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
   POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
   DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
   DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
   THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire