DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. ...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ...NEW ENGLAND... A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire