Mesoscale Discussion 1428

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IL...NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221216Z - 221415Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IA...AND NW MO. PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR HAIL. LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT IS ANTICIPATED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER FAR SE IA. THESE STORMS LIKELY INITIATED ON WAA FROM THE NW AND APPEAR TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND MUCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SVR THREAT IS LIMITED BY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO NEED A WW. ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/22/2014