Aug 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
   MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY.  LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

   SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
   ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ID EJECTS INTO WY. 
   THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE VORT/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN CO
   CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD...LIKELY INCREASING IN SPEED AS IT
   DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS.  OF PARTICULAR INTEREST EARLY THIS
   MORNING IS THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.  A
   CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
   THIS ACTIVITY OVER WRN NEB AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE NWD
   ACROSS WRN SD INTO ND BY 18Z.  SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO AID COMPLEX OF
   STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS NORTH OF WARM FRONT.  IN ITS WAKE STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SOUTH OF
   PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO
   SD WHERE LEE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD RESIDE BY 24/00Z.

   LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ACROSS ND. 
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED ACROSS SD AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
   THIS REGION SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED INSTABILITY IT APPEARS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT AND ROOT INTO WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO
   HAVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE OH
   VALLEY...SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITHIN WEAK NWLY FLOW REGIME. 
   ASIDE FROM A FEW ROBUST STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY MOST
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A MEANINGFUL SEVERE
   THREAT.