Aug 9, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
   INTO PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
   AND KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY
   OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. GUSTY
   WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE LOW AMPLITUDE/WEAK FLOW UPPER AIR REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY
   ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. A WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN FOCUSING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LEE SFC
   TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /SOME SEVERE/ IS
   EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
   OVER WRN NEB. ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK E/SE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN U.S. AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON/TONIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WLY FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME SUPERCELLS /35+ KT/ AND
   EVENTUAL UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS.
   INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LEE
   TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO/WY AND WRN NEB. AS THIS INITIALLY ELEVATED
   CONVECTION TRACKS EWD INTO A MORE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS...STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT MORE
   UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW OVER WRN NEB AND ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ZONE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LATE
   FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY CONVECTION... EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW
   ACROSS S-CENTRAL NEB INTO N-CENTRAL KS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP IN
   THIS AREA...STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 35 KT WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER
   FORCING...THE THREAT HERE IS MORE CONDITIONAL...BUT THE SLIGHT RISK
   HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD STORMS
   DEVELOP.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...

   A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
   THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   LIMITED BY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /LESS THAN 25 KT/ AND MARGINAL LAPSE
   RATES AT BEST. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH PW VALUES
   NEAR 2 INCHES COULD RESULT IN A FEW WET DOWNBURSTS.