vendredi 1 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 01 Aug 2014 06:00 to Sat 02 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 31 Jul 2014 20:05
Forecaster: TASZAREK
A level 2 was issued for NE Spain mainly for large and very large hail, excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts and isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, and parts of Russia mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia also for severe wind gusts

A level 1 was issued for Switzerland, Austria, Slovakia and SE Poland also for large hail

A level 1 was issued for N and E Spain, and SW France mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts

A level 1 was issued for Bulgaria, parts of Greece, and NW Turkey mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts


Trough that is cutting from Icelandic Low will move towards Ireland and Great Britain bringing atmospheric fronts. The belt of strong atmospheric flow over this feature together with intensifying ridge extending from Russia to Poland will move tropical air masses to central and eastern Europe while cooler polar marine air masses in the rear of the trough will move to British Isles and NW France. A well developed cut-off low over Balkans will begin to weaken and move eastwards.

NW Europe will be under influence of moderate mid-level flow associated with wide geopotential wave, while central, E and SE Europe will demonstrate rather weak wind speeds. Jet streaks will be located over N Atlantic, S Spain and partially over British Isles and Scandinavia. The majority of the thunderstorm will form in the homogenious air masses in low environmental wind shear. Increased DLS and better storm organization is expected over British Isles, western Scandinavia, NE Spain and N Turkey.

The highest CAPE values are expected in the regions of highest boundary-layer moisture content (NE Spain, Alps, Aegan Sea, N Turkey and SE Poland) where large hail is possible. Due to high values of PW (> 30) and low storm motion thunderstorms that will occur over Balkan Peninsula, Italy, and the belt from Poland to NE Russia may produce excessive precipitation and create risk for flash floods.

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