mardi 12 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Aug 2014 06:00 to Wed 13 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Aug 2014 22:01
Forecaster: BEYER
A Level 1 was issued for eastern parts Croatia, northern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Serbia, eastern parts of Romania and Ukraine, central parts of Belarus and far western parts of Russia mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A Level 1 was issued for the Po valley mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and to a lesser extent for tornados

A Level 1 was issued for Northeastern Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts

A level 1 was issued for Western France mainly for severe wind gusts


A wide long wave trough is situated with its center over the Norwegian Sea. Due to the trough a more or less zonal orientated frontal boundary is present over most parts of Western and Central Europa. It separates warm and humid airmasses over the Mediterranean and cooler airmasses to its north. The jet-streak of a seasonal quite unusual strong upper level jet covers France, Southern Germany and Czech Republic. At the end of the forecast period a pronounced short wave trough enters Western France from the Bay of Biscay.

Far Eastern Europe and Western Russia are influenced by the main frontal system of the low that is connected to the long wave trough described above. The cold front and a prefrontal convergence zone are forecasted to travel eastward during the forecast period.

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