dimanche 24 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 24 Aug 2014 06:00 to Mon 25 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 24 Aug 2014 06:39
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
Levels 1 and 2 were issued for eastern Romania/Bulgaria and southern Moldova mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Ukraine mainly for a chance of tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for northeastern Spain mainly for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Sweden and surrounding areas for spout-type tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunesia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A broad upper trough shifts into Ukraine and Belarus. Surface low pressure centers lie over western Ukraine and Moldova as well as the southern Norway/Sweden border. The former is dynamically active with a deep PV intrusion moving over a zone of warm humid air pulled in from the Black Sea before the cold front. The latter is a barotropic low filled with unstable air. Western Europe is kept calm by an extension of the Azores High.

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