jeudi 28 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 29 Aug 2014 06:00 to Sat 30 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 28 Aug 2014 20:43
Forecaster: BEYER
A level 1 was issued for Northeastern Spain mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Southern France mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the coastline of Scotland mainly for tornados.


Two long wave troughs influence the forecast area. One of them is situated over far Eastern Europe / Western Russia bringing rather cool airmasses and unstable conditions to this region. The second trough is influencing Western Europe. Its center is situated over Scotland and moves slowly eastward. A surface low having a perpendicular vertical axis corresponds to it. Its frontal system is influencing Eastern Germany and Poland.

Both troughs are separated by a weak ridge. Its axis is moving from Eastern Germany into Eastern Europe during the forecast time. It is mostly overrun by warm air advection in higher levels and has only weak impact since a frontal system can be found at almost the same place, as described above.

A cut of high that has a loose connection to the ridge, leads to sinking motion and stable conditions over parts of Northern Europe.

Southern Europe is lying south of the frontal zone and is influenced by warm and humid airmasses. A strong capping can be found over most of the Mediterranean. It is somewhat weaker over continental areas.

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