dimanche 3 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 03 Aug 2014 06:00 to Mon 04 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Aug 2014 07:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for E Germany, W Poland, E Denmark, S Sweden and SE Norway mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for SE Germany, N Italy, Austria, Czechia, W Slovakia and W Hungary mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for N Spain, S France, Italy, W Balkan mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for NE Ireland and NW UK mainly for tornadoes.


A low pressure area is centered over Scotland. Its cold front has advanced into France and western Germany while a warm sector with high MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg is bounded by drier air to the east of central Poland to Romania, with very steep lapse rates and high LCLs. This warm sector and its CAPE is funneled into a occlusion front converging over NE Germany, Denmark and S Norway. Over central Europe slow storm motion and weak shear and upslope winds toward the Alps contribute to efficient precipitation producing storms.
Upper shortwave troughs cause ascending motion over SW France and W Balkan during afternoon and evening, Italy during the morning and early afternoon, and central France to Belgium during the night. 

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