lundi 4 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 05 Aug 2014 06:00 to Wed 06 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 04 Aug 2014 19:24
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for the Russian Kola peninsula and large parts of Scandinavia for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

Level 1 and level 2 areas were issued from the W Baltics and E Poland to the Balkan states, Greece and the S Alpine region mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for the Adriatic Sea mainly for waterspouts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy and for NE Spain mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking high pressure system slowly moves from Finland into Northwestern Russia. It is surrounded by a wreath of lower 500 hPa geopotential from the Black Sea across the Alps to the North Sea with generally very weak gradients.
Along its Southern flank, the subtropical jet stream runs from the Bay of Biscay across Northern Spain into Southern Italy before it fans out over the Eastern Mediterranean. The less pronounced polar jet curves northward from the British Isles to Northern Scandinavia.
Late in the forecast period, another weak short-wave trough and an associated non-convective frontal system from the Atlantic will spread into England and Western France.

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