jeudi 7 août 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 07 Aug 2014 06:00 to Fri 08 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 06 Aug 2014 23:00
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for the Balkan Peninsula mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for northern Sweden mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for north-eastern Spain mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Due to an intense Atlantic polar trough, the westerly jet accelerates and short-wave troughs move across western into central Europe, where they run into a blocking pattern that is still dominated by high geopotential across north-eastern Europe and troughs over eastern and south-eastern Europe. The main low-level convergence zone will remain from northern Sweden across the Baltic States into Poland and the northern Balkans, where rich boundary-layer moisture and diurnally driven CAPE will allow for thunderstorms. A following short-wave trough and low-level frontal boundary will move across Germany. Across the south-eastern parts of Europe, another short-wave trough will increase the potential of storms over Turkey.

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