jeudi 11 septembre 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Mesoscale Discussion
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 11 Sep 2014 06:00 to Thu 11 Sep 2014 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 11 Sep 2014 07:36
Forecaster: DAFIS
Satellite loops show thunderstorm developing in bands across the area. Surface observations reveal pronounced convergence zone with low T-Td spreads and dew point values between 19 and 21 °C. Corfu's stations report Temperatures around 25°C and dramatic drop in pressure. These conditions, combined with the fact that mean tropospheric flow (around 15 m/s) is parallel to the convergence zone, point to a very high threat of cell training and subsequent excessive rainfall events in NW Greece and Albania the next 4 hours.

Moreover, with LLS above 10 m/s and low LCLs (~900m), if storms can develop rotation, perhaps aided if they move over the convergence zone with enhanced vorticity, tornadoes can not be ruled out. 

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