Sep 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
   FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
   MOVE ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE
   NEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A LARGE
   AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT IN THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
   SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A
   LINEAR MCS WITH STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION. 

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AT 00Z/THURSDAY FOR
   INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA AND ST LOUIS MO SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 2000
   J/KG RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND AMPLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER CELLS
   EMBEDDED IN THE LINE SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE
   COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED IN
   SCNTRL IL AND WCNTRL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THAT THE
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE GREATEST IN THAT AREA.

   ...OZARK PLATEAU...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS WRN
   MO...SE KS AND CNTRL OK. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
   FROM INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...THE WEAKENING CAP AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN  PARTS OF THE OZARKS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   00Z/THURSDAY FOR SPRINGFIELD MO AND FAYETTEVILLE AR SHOW SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE
   THREAT COULD LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A STRENGTHENING CAP HELPS
   TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.