Sep 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
   DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
   PLAINS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM ND TO ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK...CONSOLIDATING
   ACROSS MN/WI INTO ONTARIO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
   COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
   NEUTRAL TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO
   MN/ONTARIO. A SMALL/LEADING MCS...PERHAPS IN THE PROCESS OF
   ORGANIZING OVER ND ATTM...MAY CONTINUE EAST ALONG SURFACE WARM
   FRONT...FROM MN INTO WI...EARLY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   IN THE WAKE OF EARLY STORMS...MORE WIDESPREAD WARM-SECTOR STORM
   INITIATION MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING
   GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT TENDENCIES.
   HOWEVER...INHIBITION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME THROUGH SUSTAINED
   MESOSCALE FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO RESULT IN
   STORM INITIATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...FROM
   EASTERN MN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...STRENGTH OF CAPPING
   MAY LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT BUT EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT AND
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH LATE EVENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SOME INCREASE IN
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.