DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN NEB AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF SRN AND ERN NM... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO...NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. ...SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM AZ EWD ACROSS NM AND CO DURING THE DAY...ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR FROM NM INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN CO WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL NM BY 00Z. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED FASHION DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES NEWD WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS WRN NEB INTO FAR WRN KS. ...NM...ERN CO...WRN NEB... COOLING ALOFT AS WELL AS SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIN BEING REMOVED BY AROUND 18Z ACROSS NM NWD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 19-21Z WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERN CO SWWD ACROSS NM. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A PRIMARILY CELLULAR STORM MODE INITIALLY...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...THEN STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE LINEAR AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THIS MAY YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB THROUGH EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AROUND 03Z AS INSTABILITY DISSIPATES. WHILE CELLS OVER CNTRL/SRN NM MAY BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE MAIN FORCING PASSING TO THE N...CONDITIONS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 09/29/2014
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