mercredi 1 octobre 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 01 Oct 2014 06:00 to Thu 02 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 30 Sep 2014 21:27
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for extreme S Spain towards NW Algeria mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


No significant change to the macrosynoptic setup is forecast in the following 24 hours. A trough is expected to translate from France towards the Alpine area. To the southwest, a quasistationary trough will be persistent over W Iberia. To the north, a deep low pressure system is forecast to affect W Scandinavia.

Regarding DMC occurrence, we may identify two potential foci:

1/ Western Mediterranean. Here, the highest probability of CI will be present in the line from Corsica towards N Italy, where combination of approaching trough and weak frontal boundary should aid in the scattered to widespread tstm development. Rather marginal CAPE and weak vertical wind shear will likely preclude any more pronounced severe weather threat. To the southwest, better conditions will exist just offshore Algeria towards the Strait of Gibraltar and extreme S Spain. In this region, moderate to strong vertical wind shear along with steep mid-level lapse rates from EML should support well organised DMC, perhaps capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, questionable initiation precludes higher threat than Lvl 1.

2/ S Germany towards Bohemia and S Poland. In the wake of the cold front boundary, cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to the marginal CAPE build-up. Scattered tstms will be possible, but severe potential will be very limited due to the marginal instability and DLS below 10 m/s.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire