vendredi 3 octobre 2014

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 03 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sat 04 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 02 Oct 2014 20:42
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for Malta and surroundings mainly for excessive rain, large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

A level 1 was issued for the SW Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain and isolated large hail. An isolated waterspout event is possible.


A big surface high covers most of Europe. A mid-layer trough deepens over N-Algeria and shifts a bit to the east towards Tunisia. Scattered thunderstorms continue during the forecast as colder mid-levels advect south. 1-2 kJ/kg MLCAPE will be the result. DLS weakens to 10 m/s or less, so mainly clustering storms with excessive rain, large hail and gusty winds are forecast. Due to relaxing shear and increasing LLCAPE, an isolated waterspout risk exists.
DLS of 15 m/s and more than 2 kJ/kg MLCAPE south of Sicily create a favorable environment for organized convection. All kind of severe can be anticipated. Thunderstorms spread east during the night.

For the rest of Europe, no organized DMC is forecast.

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