dimanche 1 mars 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 01 Mar 2015 06:00 to Mon 02 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 01 Mar 2015 02:11
Forecaster: TASZAREK
No threat levels were issued.


Weather in NW Europe will be dominated by mid-latitude s cyclone that will trail during forecast period through Scotland and Norwegian coast. In its rear flank, advection of cold and dry air of polar origin will take place. Within this air mass, steep lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km will create favorable conditions for convection. Jet streak will run through Ireland, English Channel, and Benelux. Although DLS is forecast to exceed 50 m/s, low boundary layer's moisture content resulting in marginal instability, and very shallow free convective layer will be limiting factors for the occurrence of severe convective storms. Since weak updrafts and low equilibrium levels will not create good conditions for lightning activity, only 15% lightning probability is issued.

NE and SW Europe stays under influence of high pressure ridges that limits convective activity. Lower pressure area (~1015 hPa) is expected over Greece, Aegean Sea and Turkey. Mid-level shortwave that will pass through these area and thermodynamic instability amounting 300 J/kg will create favorable conditions for the thunderstorm occurrence. The highest probability for the lightning is forecast during nighttime hours over north of Crete where strong QG-forcing and deep free convective layer will overlap. Since thunderstorms will form in the low sheared environment, no severe weather phenomena of convective origin is expected.

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