vendredi 20 mars 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 20 Mar 2015 06:00 to Sat 21 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 19 Mar 2015 23:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for S/E Spain mainly for excessive rain, large hail and an isolated tornado event.


Looking at the 500 hPa loop makes one dizzy as various upper lows affect many parts of Europe. A vertically stacked vortex over the Iberian Peninsula drifts a bit to the east with no major fluctuations in strength. A smaller upper cold-core low over W-France gets caught by the Spanish vortex and continues to move to the SW over the Bay of Biscay, over extreme NW Spain and thereafter towards the open Atlantic. Regarding the mid-levels, a cold-core low over SE Europe features the coldest air with 500 hPa readings around -35 °C. It shifts a bit to the SE towards Turkey with rather cold air filtering in from the NW.
Very cold air invades NE Europe with enhanced convection over offshore areas due to the augmented heat flux. No DMC activity occurs during the forecast.

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