European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 03 Mar 2015 06:00 to Wed 04 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 02 Mar 2015 21:02
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Belgium, S-Netherlands, Luxembourg and W-Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. An isolated large hail event is possible.

A level 1 was issued for Scotland mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat.

SYNOPSIS

Zonal flow persists during the start of the forecast over W/CNTRL Europe before deep-layer ridge arches upward over the far NE Atlantic. This sets the stage for an increasingly amplified flow pattern over W-Europe during the end of the forecast and onwards. Blocking high over Russia dwarfs eastbound motion of an E-European trough. The main change will be falling mid-layer heights over SE-Europe as this trough amplifies to the SE.
The Mediterranean resides on the anticyclonic side of the frontal zone with quiescent conditions. Pressure fall south of the Alps is underway during the end of the forecast as lee cyclone evolves. No influence yet on quiet conditions (thunderstorm-wise).