jeudi 5 mars 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 06 Mar 2015 06:00 to Sat 07 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 05 Mar 2015 18:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for the N Aegean Sea mainly for excessive rain.

A level 2 was issued for E-Greece mainly for severe wind gusts, a few tornadoes and excessive rain.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 area mainly for excessive rain and an isolated large hail, severe wind gust and tornado risk.

Numerous level 1s were issued for parts of S-Italy, Greece and the Ionian Sea mainly for excessive rain and an isolated tornado event.


High-index pattern evolves over the far NE Atlantic as the anticyclone over the Azores builds east towards France while mid-level heights over Iceland subside. This kind of pattern supports a strengthening and eastward building ridge over W-Europe.
A positive tilted trough over the CNTRL Mediterranean tries to drip off the westerlies but latest model guidance does not yet support a cut-off solution during the end of the forecast. This kind of process does not result in rapid motion and therefore a quasi-stationary but strong trough will affect SE Europe.

While a 1035 hPa high over France builds east, the main feature of interest in the lower troposphere is a sub-1010 hPa vortex over S-Italy. This depression drifts slowly to the SE over the Ionian Sea while filling. Widespread drop of surface pressure also occurs further east over the Aegean Sea as some models try to develop a zonal aligned surface trough. A pronounced baroclinic zone evolves over NE Greece and SE Bulgaria.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire