Apr 11, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2015

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...SW KS AND FAR SW CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 
   ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO
   FLORIDA AND FROM MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE ROCKIES EWD INTO THE
   MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO
   AND ERN NM TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP FROM NEAR LUBBOCK NWD TO AROUND GOODLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
   CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF
   THE DAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODEL
   FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF
   SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS AND HI-RES
   SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT...MOVING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z/SUNDAY FROM
   AMARILLO NWD INTO SW KS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR IS
   PRESENT ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -14 C. THIS ALONG WITH 50 TO 55
   KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A COUPLE CELLS WILL INITIATE
   ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND IN SW KS...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT
   CAN DEVELOP SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW DUE TO A CAPPING
   INVERSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
   REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

   ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   WEST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AS WINDS AT THE SFC REMAIN SELY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
   AS A RESULT...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AS A
   MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM
   FAR WEST TX SEWD TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
   00Z/SUNDAY AT LAREDO SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK
   HEATING...WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.