Apr 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KY...TN...MS AND NRN
   AL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE
   DELMARVA AND SWWD INTO TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   MAINLY OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN
   PENNSYLVANIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS
   VALLEY DURING THE DAY WITH EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT SPREADING EWD TO THE E COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
   FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NRN AR/SRN MO AT 12Z FRI ACROSS THE
   OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PA BY EVENING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM
   FRONT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM THE LOW AND
   WILL BE SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL KY INTO NWRN MS AND NRN LA BY
   00Z.

   SLY WINDS S OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MAINTAIN 60S F DEWPOINTS
   BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF
   INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE.

   ...MS RIVER EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT FROM SRN MO EWD ACROSS KY. THIS MAY REINFORCE THE
   BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT SOME LIFTING OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
   DUE TO A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND AS THE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD.
   SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE LOW
   TRACK...WITH SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE
   STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS FURTHER SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   LIKELY...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO FAVOR HAIL. THE NRN
   EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED THREAT AREA MAY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
   FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY ENDS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
   STORMS.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SABINE RIVER...
   THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BREACHED BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND PERSISTENT LIFT. THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE TO THE N...BUT THIS MAY FAVOR
   MORE OF A CELLULAR STORM MODE GIVEN LACK OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING.
   VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT BUT LOW-LEVEL SRH DOES NOT APPEAR OPTIMAL IN THIS REGARD.

   ...VA...MD...SRN PA AND NJ...
   UPSTREAM SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
   MOIST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN STATES.
   HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
   WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AREAS
   OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG A
   NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT FROM WV EWD INTO NJ. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
   DUE TO UPSTREAM HEATING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
   BACKS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. WEAK INSTABILITY
   IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED
   SHOULD A SUPERCELL DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
   WOULD BE POSSIBLE.