jeudi 2 avril 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 02 Apr 2015 06:00 to Fri 03 Apr 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 02 Apr 2015 06:02
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for south-eastern Germany, the Czech Republic, parts of Austria, and Hungary mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extend tornadoes.


A broad and amplified trough is situated across eastern and central Europe, leading to a strong north-westerly flow that extends from western Europe to the east Mediterranean. Embedded in that flow, two strong vort-maxima rotate around the base of the trough, one across the Black Sea, the other from Germany into the central Balkans. At low levels, relatively dry air masses are present across eastern Europe, except for tongues of moist air that are advected ahead of the vort-maxima. Moist air affects western Europe and the Mediterranean. An overlap of moisture and steep lapse rates is most likely ahead and near the base of the vort-maxima, and thunderstorms are expected across Romania and the Ukraine as well as from Germany into the northern Balkans.

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