samedi 18 avril 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 19 Apr 2015 06:00 to Mon 20 Apr 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Apr 2015 02:17
Forecaster: TASZAREK
A level 1 was issued for Finland mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain, Balearic Islands, Sardinia and Sicilia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation


Europe stays under the influence of extensive high (1035 hPa) over the Norwegian Sea with ridge stretching to Balkan Peninsula (1025 hPa) that inhibit convection in most of the NW and central Europe. This high together with trough over W Russia provides also the intrusion of cold and dry air masses to much of the central and SE Europe, creating marginal thermodynamic instability in E parts of Europe. Warmer and more humid air covers SW Europe and the Mediterranean Sea with its surroundings. Two jest streaks are present in the forecast period, the first one separating Norwegian Sea's high and Russia's trough stretches from Svalbard to the Baltic countries, while the second one extends latitudinally from Spain to Greece. Within these two jet streaks and the presence of thermodynamic instability, severe convective storms may occur. 

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