dimanche 26 avril 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 26 Apr 2015 06:00 to Mon 27 Apr 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 26 Apr 2015 06:09
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for eastern Spain mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for southern France mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for central France mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for central and northern Belaus mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for central Austria mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for north-eastern Algeria mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

At the southern flank of an intense long-wave trough over NW Europe, a former closed low migrates east, crossing the Iberian Peninsula and western France today. A strong jet streak rapidly spreads east over northern Morocco and Algeria, providing strong DCVA from southern Iberia into the W Mediterranean. Downstream of this trough, a weakening south-westerly flow affects Central Europe, whereas broad low geopotential with cold mid-levels remains across most of eastern Europe.

At lower levels, rather warm air masses extend from the west Mediterranean into central and eastern Europe. Increasing lapse rates are expected from the Mediterranean to the Alps, across the Balkans, and over parts of eastern Europe. Given increasing low-level moisture as well, a broad area of CAPE is expected in response to diurnal heating to the south of a cold front that extends over northern France, Germany, Poland, and Belarus. Weak CAPE is present from south-eastern Europe to the southern Mediterranean.

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