Mesoscale Discussion 464

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261431Z - 261700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.