mardi 26 mai 2015
Beavercreek Tornado
http://www.whio.com/videos/news/beavercreek-tornado/vDSwLn/?ecmp=whiotv_social_facebook_2014_sfp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSP0g47Wyos
5/26/2015 Brandon Ivey Storm Chasing Live Stream NE of Breckenridge, TX
May 26, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW MAY TREND A BIT MORE ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY WEAKEN SOME...BUT A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM. AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE APPROACHES BAJA...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...NOW SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF ANOTHER BROAD LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS THIS CONTINUES...THE CONSOLIDATING IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED...DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR TO ITS SOUTHEAST. PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT IS THE CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE EXTENSIVE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGING...MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE DISRUPTED...AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS AIR MASS ON MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION... ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS UNLIKELY...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER /AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE/ PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO 30-50 KT...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. MOST OF THE REGION MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. BENEATH A RESIDUAL POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A ZONE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS INHIBITION ERODES DURING PEAK HEATING...THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.
lundi 25 mai 2015
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated: Mon May 25 23:32:03 UTC 2015
Updated: Mon May 25 23:32:03 UTC 2015
Convective Outlooks
| This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow's Outlook |
 | |
| This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
 |
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated: Mon May 25 09:44:03 UTC 2015
Updated: Mon May 25 09:44:03 UTC 2015
 | Mesoscale Discussion #0757 Issued: 25/0817 UTC Until: 25/1215 UTC Concerning: 01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE |
May 25, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL U.S. MAY BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY A BIT...BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...WITH A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS. SEVERAL OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...AND GREAT LAKES REGION...ABOVE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
THIS INCLUDES ONE IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST OF
THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPSTREAM...THE
REMNANTS OF A COMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /NOW
PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS/ ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED
LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET
WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE
DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS INFLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
EVENTUALLY...A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE INITIALLY MODEST...AT LEAST SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL
STRENGTHENING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/...MESOVORTICES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES OR LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BUT MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BUT...THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST NEAR THE
DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THEREAFTER...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS MAY NOT BE
UNTIL THE 26/00-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING
STORM CLUSTER OR TWO. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
dimanche 24 mai 2015
May 24, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ...EAST TX INTO AR/MO... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LA AND AR. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN TN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE. ...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK... EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
Attention....................www.estofex.org/
Hi everyone !for the past week you notice that I did took time to show some weather prediction outlook from Europe, http://www.estofex.org/.....CONNECTION_REFUSED.... This is not good ,if the
European Storm Forecast Experiment,is for the public to view,what the point of this
please fill free send a Email...........Thank you!
dimanche 17 mai 2015
samedi 16 mai 2015
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
 |
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 160808
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-161800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and
southern Plains today...
* LOCATIONS...
Western and central Kansas
Western and central Oklahoma
Southern Nebraska
Northwest Texas
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across the
Plains states Saturday into Saturday night...from parts of
Nebraska southward to Texas. Risks will include very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and several tornadoes -- with a few likely
to be significant/long-lived.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Broyles.. 05/16/2015
|
mardi 12 mai 2015
Convective Outlooks
| This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow's Outlook |
| |
| This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
| |
| This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
 |
lundi 11 mai 2015
European Storm Forecast Experiment
Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 May 2015 06:00 to Tue 12 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 May 2015 05:06
Forecaster: GATZEN
Valid: Mon 11 May 2015 06:00 to Tue 12 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 May 2015 05:06
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for southern Greece mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
High across south-west Europe ridges into Central Europe. Downstream, a deep trough affects eastern Europe. Embedded digging vort-max crosses the southern Balkan Peninsula and enters the east Mediterranean south of Greece. In the wake of the trough, a swath of cool air below 800 hPa affects a broad region from the Baltic Sea across Poland and western Ukraine into the Balkans. With increasing ridging from the west, the cool air is capped and deep lapse rates will be quite poor across eastern Europe. Additionally, low-level moisture is limited. Better chances for deep moist convection exist across the Balkans.
SYNOPSIS
High across south-west Europe ridges into Central Europe. Downstream, a deep trough affects eastern Europe. Embedded digging vort-max crosses the southern Balkan Peninsula and enters the east Mediterranean south of Greece. In the wake of the trough, a swath of cool air below 800 hPa affects a broad region from the Baltic Sea across Poland and western Ukraine into the Balkans. With increasing ridging from the west, the cool air is capped and deep lapse rates will be quite poor across eastern Europe. Additionally, low-level moisture is limited. Better chances for deep moist convection exist across the Balkans.
samedi 9 mai 2015
May 9, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SE CO...SW KS AND A SMALL PART OF NW OK... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO N-CNTRL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL STATES... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS FROM EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD TRACK E TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY 10/00Z...BEFORE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY NE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER SE/E-CNTRL CO. A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP E OVER KS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY NE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY TONIGHT. DRYLINE WILL MIX E OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWED BY MORNING CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CURRENT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE N BUT MAY BE STUNTED BY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TONIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS... ANOTHER MESSY/COMPLEX FORECAST AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURRED ON FRI AND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING. CONVECTIVELY PARAMETRIZED GUIDANCE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TOO UNSTABLE IN THE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR N OF THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHILE A HIGHER-END SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY...BUST POTENTIAL IS ALSO APPARENT. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...WILL FOCUS ON TWO CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN A BROADER ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER ERN CO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE AND ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURS ATOP THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN W TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE EARLY-DAY STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY IN CONCERT WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ADVANCE N OVER N TX AND OK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...BUT LIKELY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE AND LACK OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK MAY BE LIMITED. STEEPEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIE THIS AFTERNOON FROM E-CNTRL CO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BENEATH AND N OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 75 KT AT 500 MB/ CURLING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO WRN KS...WIND PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT-SIZED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. BUT VEER-BACK SIGNATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILE. ALONG WITH CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND DIABATIC HEATING...WILL REFRAIN FROM MODERATE-RISK TYPE TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO AN MCS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS MAY INCREASE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES GIVEN CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH ERN EXTENT THIS EVENING. FARTHER S FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO N-CNTRL TX...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR. CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ANAFRONTAL GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT RELATIVE TO THE FRONT. LARGE BUOYANCY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED/INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED RISK.
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