May 24, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
   MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
   MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
   REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
   OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
   THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
   GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
   LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
   TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
   MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

   ...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
   EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
   CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
   SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
   WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
   THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.