mercredi 6 mai 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 07 May 2015 06:00 to Fri 08 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 06 May 2015 22:52
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued from northern Greece to southern Bulgaria and north-western Turkey mainly for large or very large hail, excessive precipitation, and to a lesser extend severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across the south-eastern Balkans and the Aegean region mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for north-eastern Spain and south-western France mainly for large or very large hail and to a lesser extend severe wind gusts.


Low geopotential centered across north-western Europe yields a strong mid-level westerly flow at its southern flank. One strong jet streak is currently over the north Mediterranean ahead of a short-wave trough. The short-wave trough and jet will rapidly progress east, where a downstream ridge decays during the period. A plume of well-mixed desert air will be replaced by a cold front at the same time. In the wake of this cold front, cool maritime air masses have spread into most of Europe, leading to weak low-level moisture. Highest moisture will remain in the wake of Iberia and the Alps. Lapse rates will start to recover due to diurnal heating.

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