vendredi 8 mai 2015

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Storm Forecast
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 08 May 2015 06:00 to Sat 09 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 May 2015 17:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for S-France, N-Italy and parts of the Alps mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of S/CNTRL Italy mainly for large hail and an isolated severe wind gust report.

A level 1 was issued for W/CNTRL Turkey mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland and CNTRL-UK mainly for an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

Split flow pattern continues over Europe. One branch detours northeast over UK towards Finland. Another one branches off to the southeast and grazes the N-African coast. Steering cold-core vortex over the southern Artic Ocean/N-Norwegian Sea remains in place and pushes numerous low-amplitude waves east. With those waves, many parts of Europe will see some kind of impact. Regarding dynamics, the northern ones feature best structure with distinct stamps (complex pattern of various low pressure areas of weak waves) in the lower troposphere, whereas waves to the south start to weaken with only diffuse signals in the surface pressure fields (e.g. W-Mediterranean).

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