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Apr 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook,,,,,,,http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN NEB INTO KS
   AND OK...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO
   CNTRL TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THE OH
   VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   NIGHTTIME HOURS.  TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN
   ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
   TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=6

Severe Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours mainly near and along a Bowie to Stephenville to Hamilton line along a sharpening dryline. Storms that initially develop along the dryline will have the potential to produce all modes off severe weather including tornadoes, large hail and destructive winds. The most likely time frame for storm development along the dryline will be during the mid to late afternoon hours. Through the late afternoon and evening hours, initial storms that developed in the afternoon will likely congeal into a line that should move eastward across North and Central TX. The main hazards with the line of storms will be destructive straight line winds and large hail. There will be a slightly lower risk for tornadoes, but the potential is non-zero. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially with slow moving storms mainly during the overnight hours.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=oun&gc=2 ;NWS Norman, OK

Severe storms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon and continue through the evening and into the night. The strongest storms may produce hail larger than baseballs, damaging winds, and tornadoes. There is still some uncertainty regarding how many storms will form initially, but higher confidence in storms becoming widespread east of Interstate-35. In any case, it will be very important to pay close attention to the weather on Tuesday.

Weather Forecast Office Hastings, NE

Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s are expected today. Tuesday will also be warm with temperatures in the mid 60s north to around 80 south, but there is also a chance for severe thunderstorms. Large hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Weather Forecast Office Topeka, KS

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**Severe Weather is Likely Over Northeast Kansas Tuesday** Monday afternoon update: Scattered thunderstorms may develop tonight, and if they do develop they can be expected to produce large hail. For Tuesday, confidence remains high in seeing severe storms develop during the late afternoon and early evening across northeast Kansas. The strongest storms will be capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Additionally, localized flash flooding is possible in areas that received heavy rain last night. Please ensure you and your family are prepared for severe weather, preparedness kit is assembled, and your shelter is set up just in case!

Tuesday

• More widespread severe t-storms in parts of the central and southern Plains, particularly in Kansas, Oklahoma, northwest and west-central Texas.
• Overall outbreak potential: Moderate to high
• Threats: Tornadoes (possibly strong/long-track), large hail, damaging winds

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Areas shaded red have the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms. General thunderstorms are possible in orange shaded locations.

Wednesday

• Severe t-storms could again be rather numerous from the mid-Mississippi Valley to east or central Texas.
• Overall outbreak potential: Moderate
• Threats: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe Weather

One, if not multiple severe thunderstorm outbreaks, including tornadoes, appears to be in the cards in the week ahead in parts of the central and southern U.S., a sharp change from what had been an exceptionally quiet April for severe weather.

(MORE: Where Have April's Tornadoes Gone?)

Upper-level and surface pattern setting up Tuesday and Wednesday.

Why We're Concerned: The Setup

In general, spring severe outbreaks are triggered when a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, surges east into the Plains states.

That precise pattern looks to be shaping up by Tuesday.

In fact, there appear to be three distinct upper-level disturbances embedded in that general trough that each will help ignite rounds of severe thunderstorms through next weekend.

Ahead of each upper disturbance, progressively richer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will push northward, adding to instability from the pockets of cold, dry air aloft.

Examining analogs, or past weather patterns most similar to the forecast pattern next week, storm chaser and former weather.com digital meteorologist Quincy Vagell found five of the top 10 analogs were tornado outbreaks.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Today's Outlook
This is tomorrow's forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow's Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow's (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook