One, if not multiple severe thunderstorm outbreaks, including tornadoes, appears to be in the cards in the week ahead in parts of the central and southern U.S., a sharp change from what had been an exceptionally quiet April for severe weather.
Upper-level and surface pattern setting up Tuesday and Wednesday.
Why We're Concerned: The Setup
In general, spring severe outbreaks are triggered when a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, surges east into the Plains states.
That precise pattern looks to be shaping up by Tuesday.
In fact, there appear to be three distinct upper-level disturbances embedded in that general trough that each will help ignite rounds of severe thunderstorms through next weekend.
Ahead of each upper disturbance, progressively richer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will push northward, adding to instability from the pockets of cold, dry air aloft.
Examining analogs, or past weather patterns most similar to the forecast pattern next week, storm chaser and former weather.com digital meteorologist Quincy Vagell found five of the top 10 analogs were tornado outbreaks.