Current Mesoscale Discussions

Mesoscale Discussion 0200

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southern IN...Western KY...Far Northwest TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140737Z - 140900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across far
   southern IN, western KY, and far northwest TN during the next hour
   or two.

   DISCUSSION...Predominately shallow convection ongoing across western
   KY and far northwest TN has shown some intensification over the past
   hour or so. Given that the overall thermodynamic environment has
   shown little improvement over the past few hours, this
   intensification is likely a result of stronger forcing for ascent
   and increased vertical shear associated with the approaching cyclone
   and strengthening mid-level flow.

   Regional radar imagery reveals a striated linear structure, with
   several elongated bands of higher reflectivity. Forecast soundings
   suggest this activity is elevated above a shallow stable layer and
   the general expectation is for this activity to have little notable
   impact at the surface. However, storm interactions may briefly
   result in strong enough downdrafts to penetrate the stable
   low-levels, resulting in isolated gusts at the surface. Coverage of
   any damaging wind gusts is expected to be very isolated. Duration is
   also expected to be limited, as the downstream, low-level air mass
   across central KY and south-central IN becomes increasingly more
   stable.

   ..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/14/2019