Mesoscale Discussion 0142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

   Areas affected...south-central and southeast LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031635Z - 031700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk is increasing over south-central and
   southeast LA.  A tornado watch may be needed soon for parts of
   southeast LA (near and north of Lake Pontchartrain).

   DISCUSSION...The 9am CST raob from Breaux Bridge, LA (Vortex2SE
   special raob) showed little remaining convective inhibition and a
   profile exhibiting 1100 J/kg MLCAPE.  Low-level shear is adequate
   but a tendency for veering low-level flow with time as the surface
   cyclone develops east across central AL will tend to limit hodograph
   size with time.  Nonetheless, a severe risk mainly in the form of
   strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany
   the more intense storms late this morning through the afternoon.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 03/03/2019