Southern Mississippi Valley Sector

 Areas affected...southern MS into southwest AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031513Z - 031615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A locally damaging wind threat may develop this morning. 
   Convective trends will be monitored in the short term as to whether
   a tornado watch will be needed prior to an expected tornado watch
   issuance time by the 11am-12pm period.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an intensifying band of
   thunderstorms over southern MS from near the surface low
   southwestward along the cold front.  The developing band of storms
   is expected to move eastward near the primary frontal zone extending
   eastward from the surface low across south-central AL.  The maritime
   warm front near the I-10 corridor is becoming more diffuse with time
   but the airmass along and south of the front is where appreciable
   surface-based buoyancy resides.  As such, only weak instability is
   located currently over east-central MS to the east of Jackson. 
   Nonetheless, as additional boundary layer warming/moistening occurs,
   the combination of a destabilizing boundary layer and the fast
   eastward motion of the squall line (40-45 kt) may facilitate an
   increased risk for horizontal momentum transport in the form of
   strong to locally severe gusts in the next 1-2 hours.  If this
   appears imminent, a tornado watch may be needed sooner than a
   currently anticipated tornado watch issuance time by 11am-12pm CST.