Apr 7, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds and hail will be possible through this evening from
   southeast Texas northeastward to parts of the Tennessee Valley.

   ...TX/LA...
   A large and increasingly organized linear MCS is tracking along the
   middle TX Gulf coast.  This system is expected to move across
   southeast TX and into much of LA through early evening.  So far,
   forward speed of the system has been modest (30-35kt).  However,
   rather strong mid-level flow into the back of the MCS and favorable
   low-level moisture/instability ahead of the system may aid in
   acceleration later today.  Damaging winds along the leading edge of
   the convection are the main concern, so have upgraded to an ENH risk
   across this area.  Isolated QLCS tornadoes are also possible if the
   system continues to organize/intensify.

   ...Southern AR into MS/TN/KY...
   Scattered strong thunderstorms have been occurring along the surface
   boundary extending from southern AR into parts of TN and KY.  The
   air mass south of the boundary will slowly destabilize this
   afternoon, with various 12z CAM solutions suggesting a few intense
   convective clusters capable of hail and damaging wind.

   Later this evening and tonight, the large MCS over TX may persist
   and move into northern MS and west TN, posing a risk of damaging
   winds.  Confidence that system will remain severe for that long is
   not high, but given the generally favorable thermodynamic
   environment, it is not out of the question.  This risk will be
   re-evaluated in later outlooks.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 04/07/2019