Mesoscale Discussion 263

Mesoscale Discussion 0263

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Southeast/East TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061408Z - 061715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity may
   necessitate watch issuance during the next several hours. All severe
   hazards, including tornadoes, are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across the broad warm
   frontal zone extending from central TX into southern LA. Air mass
   across this region is currently characterized by temperatures in the
   upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. These conditions
   do not  currently support surface-based storms but persistent
   forcing for ascent coupled with continued moisture advection will
   likely erode any inhibition within the next few hours. 

   Bulk vertical shear is supportive of organized storms capable of all
   severe hazards. Surface winds are expected to remain relatively
   weak, which leads to some uncertainty regarding the tornado
   potential. Even so, augmented lift, increased surface vorticity, and
   higher low-level moisture along the front (which is expected to
   sharpen as daytime heating increases), could lead to a greater
   tornado threat closer to the front. 

   Convective trends will be monitored closely and a watch may
   eventually be needed.