Mesoscale Discussion 277

Mesoscale Discussion 0277

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast TX...Middle/Upper TX Coast

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41...

   Valid 071613Z - 071745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado or two
   remains across southeast TX and the middle/upper TX Coast.

   DISCUSSION...Air mass ahead of the ongoing convective line continue
   to destabilize amidst continue moisture advection. Dewpoints are now
   between 70 and 72 deg F areawide and mesoanalysis estimates 2000+
   J/kg. Additionally, the overall system is well organized, evidenced
   by strong (i.e. 3-5 mb) height rises behind the line and sharpening
   reflectivity gradient along its leading edge. Another factor
   suggesting intensification is the southeasterly surface winds and
   resulting increased convergence.

   Two factors potentially impeding further
   intensification/organization are the line-parallel orientation of
   the shear vectors and the slowing of the shortwave trough currently
   moving through south TX.

   Overall expectation is for gradual intensification/organization over
   the next few hours with the forward speed of the overall system to
   increase. Strong wind gusts are the primary severe threat. Some hail
   also remains possible. A brief tornado or two is also possible,
   particularly as the system intensifies and forward motion increases.

   ..Mosier.. 04/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28029674 30239688 31749469 29159468 28029674